Glavine's Recovery Plan

Worse than what Tom Glavine said in the clubhouse following last night's game was how he looked walking off of the mound a few hours earlier.  He looked dejected, hanging his head.  He looked defeated.  For all of his finger-pointing the last few seasons, Glavine looked and sounded like an addict who finally realizes he has a problem.  In fact, when asked if he was bothered by the round of boos he received while moping off the field, Glavine observed, "It's not them.  It's me."…

The problem is not his velocity, as some scouts have suggested, which subsequently makes his changeup vulnerable.  The problem is not an inability to throw inside.  It's not the lack of bite on his slider.  The problem appears to be simply his confidence, which is hurting his control, and a fear of throwing the ball over the plate early in the count…

"I just don't feel good letting go of the ball," Glavine noted to reporters.  "I'm uncomfortable on the mound for some reason."…

He, his teammates and his coaches must help him regain his normal comfort level, because he is not going anywhere.  And he needs to be better than this…

The first step in Glavine's recovery is regaining trust in his defense…

"It always comes back to the same thing," Glavine remarked.  " You have to trust yourself to do the things you have to do." …

This is true, but it would help if he could allow the ball to be put into play without chaos ensuing.  If part of the problem is that he remains haunted by the days of Roger Cedeno doing donuts in the outfield, then watching Jose Reyes botch three grounders and Cliff Floyd misjudge a fly ball, as they did in last night's game, will not help Glavine exorcise Shea's defensive demons and regain his faith.  If his teammates expect him to throw strikes, they've got to be on their best behavior while playing in the field behind him…

The sooner Glavine begins to trust his defense, the sooner he can be begin the final two and a half steps in his recovery: throwing his slider and sinker for strikes early in the count…

This season, of the 150 batters that Glavine has faced, only 16 have put the ball in play when swinging at the first pitch and are batting .375, which means the pitches are probably flat and over the plate.  Of the remaining 134 hitters, he's thrown a first pitch ball only eight more times than he's thrown a first pitch strike, which would indicate his first pitch is not very deceptive.  What's more, while the group starting off 1–0 reaches base more than half of the time, the group starting off in the hole reaches base just over 30 percent of the time.  Neither result is acceptable.

Many words have been written about Glavine's declining velocity, the location of his change-up and his weak command on the inside part of the plate.  However, through the 1990's and as recently as his last season with the Braves, what made Glavine so successful was his uncanny ability to hook his slider and sinker over the outside edge of the plate for a strike.  This is what is missing from his repertoire these days…

Here's where trusting his defense, again, becomes invaluable... 

Afraid to walk a batter, and even more afraid to allow the ball to enter play, he is shying away from these two previously successful pitches because umpires are switching to a more vertical strike zone and they're not being called strikes as often, which in turns keeps the batter from looking for it.  This means, when he does get the ball over the plate it's typically a tepid fastball, change-up or a ball on its inner half, which batters are anticipating while standing in the on-deck circle.  In turn they rip whatever he throws for a hit.  In other words, he's believes he's damned if he throws his slider and sinker, and damned if he doesn't.  I can’t blame him for not being confident…

Following last night's game, when asked if he'd be surprised if he threw seven scoreless innings his next time out, Glavine responded, "No.  I'm surprised by this."

Exactly.  Glavine's better than what he has shown.  He knows it.  And now he needs to show it.  Trusting his defense, going back to basics, regaining confidence in his slider and sinker and throwing them for strikes will certainly help him do so…